Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 8.459226 9.721161 11.081846 12.654979 14.420388 16.337143 18.572363
2026-01-04 6.620473 8.328061 10.314074 12.781846 15.752239 19.197931 23.481970
2026-01-11 5.593181 7.463738 9.748420 12.720514 16.458194 20.974237 26.811641
2026-01-18 4.768762 6.717521 9.206074 12.579545 16.990261 22.513484 29.898014
2026-01-25 4.197974 6.199834 8.856863 12.588358 17.631013 24.138286 33.086910
2026-02-01 3.765465 5.808238 8.616970 12.689793 18.359153 25.873336 36.466580
2026-02-08 3.349574 5.385838 8.281022 12.607557 18.798826 27.210341 39.342669
2026-02-15 2.988236 4.999656 7.952154 12.491503 19.157510 28.424675 42.076174
2026-02-22 2.728543 4.736901 7.773035 12.564173 19.767500 29.992019 45.342210
2026-03-01 2.567998 4.610840 7.782730 12.906917 20.774916 32.151262 49.519747
2026-03-08 2.304513 4.289611 7.460818 12.712630 20.957021 33.110090 51.991016
2026-03-15 2.001008 3.869065 6.943774 12.169151 20.562043 33.182305 53.142366
2026-03-22 1.896944 3.786542 6.975055 12.510999 21.571687 35.419243 57.641015
2026-03-29 1.778706 3.666938 6.934080 12.729431 22.394263 37.404952 61.841394
2026-04-05 1.620626 3.456786 6.718648 12.635524 22.696936 38.585574 64.835701
2026-04-12 1.473738 3.251918 6.494325 12.506871 22.927558 39.652170 67.681591
2026-04-19 1.361236 3.101701 6.354357 12.511568 23.373909 41.070890 71.124179
2026-04-26 1.272505 2.989573 6.274194 12.613912 23.985702 42.773926 75.074552
2026-05-03 1.168335 2.834402 6.100031 12.531596 24.268015 43.940024 78.188426
2026-05-10 1.070108 2.680998 5.916106 12.416335 24.480720 44.990523 81.139956
2026-05-17 1.001675 2.584942 5.836064 12.488557 25.026484 46.615051 85.089492
2026-05-24 0.966592 2.559851 5.895479 12.829520 26.072314 49.126134 90.603757
2026-05-31 0.881176 2.409922 5.688063 12.636247 26.122999 49.917873 93.225842